Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellFive fights for Trump’s first year Warren builds her brand with 2020 down the road AACR’s march on Washington MORE (R-Ky.) and conservative groups are headed toward a showdown over GOP primaries in 2018.
McConnell has voiced confidence that Republicans will nominate “electable” candidates as they seek to grow their narrow majority during an election cycle in which Democrats will be defending 23 seats to just eight for the GOP.
“We intend to play in primaries if there’s a clear choice between someone who can win in November and someone who can’t,” McConnell said at an April 7 press conference.
Conservative groups that have frequently clashed with McConnell and the GOP establishment say they intend to back candidates that could move the party to the right.
“We’re looking for viable conservative candidates, and our supporters don’t care whether the GOP establishment ultimately supports them or not,” said Ken Cuccinelli, president of the Senate Conservatives Fund, which is backing Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel as the Republican candidate against Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod BrownFive things to know about Trump's steel order Trump administration investigating effect of steel imports on US Mexico: Recent deportations 'a violation' of US immigration rules MORE (D).
“Sometimes the establishment comes around to support our candidates, and sometimes they don’t. But our criteria won’t change.”
Republicans’ hopes of winning the Senate majority in 2010 and 2012 were thwarted in part by some weak candidates who defeated rivals from the GOP establishment in party primaries.
In 2014, McConnell, asked about Tea Party challengers, declared to The New York Times that “we are going to crush them everywhere.”
The GOP largely did in that cycle, winning back the Senate after Sens. Thad CochranThad CochranPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Overnight Defense: FBI chief confirms Trump campaign, Russia probe | Senators push for Afghan visas | Problems persist at veterans' suicide hotline Senators ask to include visas for Afghans in spending bill MORE (R-Miss.) and Pat RobertsPat RobertsPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups IRS chief says he's committed to finishing his term Overnight Finance: CBO predicts budget deficits, debt to hit new highs in 30 years | Meet Trump’s Ms. Fix-It | Trump, Mnuchin talk tax reform | Mexico's B windfall MORE (R-Kan.) defeated conservative challengers, and GOP leaders helped clear the field for Sen. Cory GardnerCory GardnerPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Taiwan deserves to participate in United Nations Reversal: Some Republicans now defending parts of ObamaCare MORE (R) to take on Democrat Mark UdallMark UdallPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Gorsuch's critics, running out of arguments, falsely scream 'sexist' Election autopsy: Latinos favored Clinton more than exit polls showed MORE in Colorado.
“The idea, I always remind people, is to win the election, and frequently, the primary in 2010 and 2012 dictated the outcome in November,” McConnell said at his press conference earlier this month.
“We didn’t let that happen again in 2014 and we came to the majority. We only had one episode in 2016, in Indiana,” he added, referring to the primary between conservative Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R), whom the Club for Growth backed, and Rep. Todd YoungTodd YoungRinging the alarm in Congress: 20 million lives at risk due to famine Picking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Senators introduce new Iran sanctions MORE (R), whom the establishment backed.
Young won the primary and a competitive election in the fall against former Sen. Evan Bayh (D).
“We nominated the right candidate, and he won,” McConnell said.
BuzzFeed reported earlier this year that a senior White House adviser told donors that “the days of McConnell picking Republican nominees in Senate races is over.”
But the White House later pushed back against the report, and McConnell has expressed confidence that the White House will take a back seat willingly.
“I think it’s safe to say that we will be looking for, in these non-incumbent races, the most electable candidates possible, and I think the administration will defer to our judgment on Senate races,” McConnell said.
A few battles are already shaping up in 2018.
In Ohio, it is unclear whether the GOP establishment will back Mandel, who lost to Brown in 2012.
The Club for Growth is backing Mandel. In 2010, it helped defeat former Sen. Bob Bennett (Utah), one of McConnell’s best friends, in a GOP primary.
Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio), a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, has amassed $6.3 million in campaign funds and might be seen as a stronger candidate by Washington Republicans.
“We’re supporting Josh Mandel in Ohio. I think the establishment would probably prefer Pat Tiberi, but any competent Republican consultant would strongly advise Tiberi not to run,” said Andrew Roth, vice president for government affairs at the Club for Growth. “The establishment should like Mandel.
In Missouri, Rep. Ann Wagner (R) appears to be the early establishment favorite to take on Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillFive takeaways from the Georgia special election Picking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Potential McCaskill challenger has .7M: report MORE (D), but her decision to pull her endorsement of Donald TrumpDonald TrumpTrump: Government 'involves heart,' unlike business Issa dodges when asked if he wants Trump to campaign alongside him Trump's infrastructure plan can mean jobs, jobs, jobs ... and security MORE last year could leave her open to attack.
Missouri Attorney General Josh Holly may challenge her, although he just won his office, which makes the chances less likely.
In Wisconsin, the Senate GOP primary has several potential candidates in the mix.
Nicole Schneider, who could fund her own campaign; businessman Eric Hovde; Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson; and state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who was honored last year for her work by the conservative American Legislative Exchange Counsel, could face Sen. Tammy BaldwinTammy BaldwinLawmakers talk climate for Earth Day, Science March Trump says he supports Dem ‘Buy America’ bill Picking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups MORE (D) in the general election.
The Club for Growth is eyeing the GOP race to take on Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups Manchin: Trump should make his clothes in West Virginia Sanders supporter to run against red-state Democrat MORE (D-W.Va.).
“Conservatives like the attorney general, Patrick Morrisey. The establishment likes the congressman, [Rep.] Evan Jenkins,” said Roth.
A few sitting Republican senators could face challengers.
In Utah, Sen. Orrin HatchOrrin HatchChaffetz's campaign arm registers 2028 websites The Hill's 12:30 Report Chaffetz won't run for reelection MORE (R) has declared he will run for his eighth term despite promising in 2012 that he would retire next year.
In Arizona, Kelli Ward plans to challenge Sen. Jeff FlakeJeff FlakeTrump wall faces skepticism on border No Congress members along Mexico border support funding Trump's wall Obama-linked group launches ads targeting Republicans on immigration MORE (R), who was one of Trump’s biggest critics in the Senate during the 2016 presidential race. Rep. Paul GosarPaul GosarWho will replace Chaffetz on Oversight? Picking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups House votes to begin debate on healthcare bill; six Republicans defect MORE (R-Ariz.) has criticized Flake for supporting the 2013 comprehensive immigration reform bill but has decided not to challenge him.
In Alabama, Sen. Luther Strange (R), who until recently was the state’s attorney general, has to answer questions about former Gov. Robert Bentley’s decision to appoint him in the midst of an investigation of the governor. A Republican state representative has complained about the appearance of collusion after Strange asked for the suspension of an impeachment probe before Bentley chose him for the Senate.
On Tuesday, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) set a special primary for Strange’s seat on Aug. 15.
Chris McDaniel, who nearly ousted Cochran in 2014, may challenge Sen. Roger WickerRoger WickerPicking 2018 candidates pits McConnell vs. GOP groups McConnell’s shining moment As US healthcare changes, preventative screenings can't stop MORE (R-Miss.) in 2018, but it’s probably an uphill battle.
“Just because we haven’t seen a Republican Senate incumbent go down in a primary in the last couple cycles doesn’t mean Republican primary voters will all of a sudden love the party’s leadership,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.