Republicans face a make-or-break moment this week as House leaders hope to pass legislation to repeal and replace ObamaCare.
The House GOP leadership team is aiming for a floor vote on Thursday, but it remains uncertain if the measure can pass.
House denizens should prepare themselves for an arduous Thursday. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) warned that “late votes are likely.”
Assuming all members show up to vote, Republicans can only afford 21 defections to secure the minimum 216 votes to ensure its passage.
With conservatives and centrists still divided over whether to vote for the measure, GOP leaders face a tall task of rounding up enough votes to fulfill a pledge they’ve campaigned on for seven years.
President Trump won support on Friday from leaders of the conservative Republican Study Committee (RSC) after agreeing to provide states with the options of receiving block grants for Medicaid and imposing work requirements for Medicaid recipients.
Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said Friday that making the Medicaid work requirements optional doesn’t go nearly far enough.
Then there are the GOP centrists, many of whom already face tough reelections in 2018. They’re wary of voting for legislation that, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), would result in 24 million more uninsured people over the next decade.
Many centrists represent states that accepted the 2010 healthcare law’s Medicaid expansion and don’t support the legislation’s provisions to roll it back.
It’s unclear if the CBO will have a chance to weigh in on the changes agreed upon by Trump and the RSC before the full House vote. Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) wouldn’t commit to waiting for an updated CBO score, saying “we're moving forward with our bill because the American people want relief from ObamaCare.”
Lawmakers on the fence are also skeptical of taking a tough vote on legislation that doesn’t appear to be able to pass the Senate.
With a 52-seat majority Senate GOP leadership don't appear to currently have the votes to pass the House bill. Leadership has a narrow window and is only able to lose two GOP senators and have Vice President Mike PenceMike (Michael) Richard PenceChristie to take on role in Trump's fight against opioids: report 3 reasons Devin Nunes must step away from the Trump probe Pence meets his 'second-favorite Ron and Nancy' MORE break a tie.
GOP Sens. Dean HellerDean HellerWith GOP’s healthcare bill on ice, Dems go on offense Red-state Dems in Supreme Court pressure cooker This week: House GOP faces make-or-break moment on ObamaCare MORE (Nev.) and Susan CollinsSusan CollinsSenate braces for fallout over Supreme Court fight Overnight Finance: WH wants to slash billions | Border wall funding likely on hold | Wells Fargo to pay 0M over unauthorized accounts | Dems debate revamping consumer board Lawmakers call for pilot program to test for energy sector vulnerabilities MORE (Maine) both announced their opposition to the House bill late last week, joining Sen. Rand PaulRand PaulTrump: 'No doubt' we'll make a deal on healthcare Overnight Defense: General says US strike probably led to civilian deaths | Tillerson to push NATO on spending | Trump taps F-35 chief Senate backs Montenegro's NATO membership MORE (R-Ky.) who has been a vocal "no" for weeks.
After Nevada’s Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval announced his opposition, Heller said that he couldn’t back the House repeal and replace plan in its “current form,” according to Bloomberg.
Collins echoed him, telling the Portland Press Herald that "this is not a bill I could support in its current form. ...It really misses the mark.”
With those three senators opposed to the House bill, it doesn’t have the votes to pass the Senate without changes.
The three GOP senators aren't the only potential hurdles in the upper chamber. Roughly 17 additional GOP senators have signaled they are undecided or have concerns with the House legislation, underscoring the uphill battle it is expected to face in the Senate.
Ahead of the potential vote on Thursday, the House will consider two other accompanying healthcare reform bills. One would allow small businesses to purchase association health plans together, while the other would eliminate antitrust exemptions for health insurance providers.
Those bills are also likely dead on arrival in the Senate. Though Republicans are able to use "reconciliation" to clear the House repeal and replace legislation, any separate reform bills are expected to need 60 votes.
Gorsuch, Comey head to Capitol Hill
A days-long hearing for Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, is expected to dominate the Senate next week.
The high-profile Judiciary Committee hearing will kick off on Monday when Sens. Chuck GrassleyChuck GrassleyRNC head: Dems acting ‘petty’ to Gorsuch Dems delay Senate panel vote on Supreme Court nominee Grassley wants details on firm tied to controversial Trump dossier MORE (R-Iowa) and Dianne FeinsteinDianne FeinsteinOvernight Regulation: Trump repeals 'blacklisting' rule Dems delay Senate panel vote on Supreme Court nominee Dems get it wrong: 'Originalism' is mainstream, even for liberal judges MORE (D-Calif.), as well as Gorsuch, are scheduled to give their opening statements.
Heidi Hess, CREDO Action’s senior campaign manager, said that in addition to red-state Democrats up for reelection in 2018 she’s also watching Feinstein, hoping that as the top Dem on the Judiciary Committee she’ll help “set the tone.”
Democrats are facing a wall of pressure from progressive outside groups to a take a firm line against Gorsuch, with activists warning that any vote for Gorsuch is effectively a vote to enable Trump.
With Gorsuch expected to need 60 votes to clear the Senate, Republicans will need help from eight Democrats; both sides are closely watching a group of 10 senators up for reelection in states carried by Trump.
Colorado Sens. Cory GardnerCory GardnerLawmakers call for pilot program to test for energy sector vulnerabilities Overnight Cybersecurity: New questions for House Intel chair over WH visit | Cyber war debate heats up | Firm finds security flaws in 'panic buttons' Trump’s budget jeopardizes America’s public lands heritage MORE (R) and Michael BennetMichael BennetPath to 60 narrows for Trump pick Trump’s budget jeopardizes America’s public lands heritage Under pressure, Dems hold back Gorsuch support MORE (D) are expected to introduce Gorsuch at his hearing. A spokeswoman for Bennet noted that home-state senators typically appear with a nominee and the Democratic senator is still undecided on Gorsuch’s nomination.
Though GOP outside groups have largely focused on 2018 Democrats, Bennet is getting some late attention from outside groups looking to win over key votes.
Concerned Veterans for America released a web ad targeting Bennet late last week and the GOP outside group America Rising Squared circulated a video of Bennet being asked by a reporter about his position on Gorsuch with the subject line “Bennet runs away when asked about Gorsuch.”
Gorsuch’s hearing is expected to last between three to four days, according to Grassley’s office, with questioning of Trump’s nominee starting on Tuesday. After senators finish quizzing him they’ll also hear from outside legal experts.
Gorsuch’s confirmation hearing won’t be the only high-profile committee event on Monday.
The House Intelligence Committee will hold a hearing on Russian attempts to influence the 2016 election. FBI Director James Comey and NSA Director Mike Rogers are among the witnesses slated to testify in what’s sure to be a closely watched hearing.
Comey has so far avoided commenting publicly on whether the FBI is investigating Trump associates for ties to the Russian government or on Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that former President Barack ObamaBarack ObamaWhite House staff to skip correspondents' dinner Overnight Energy: Trump signs climate order | Greens vow to fight back GOP lawmakers defend Trump military rules of engagement MORE ordered a wiretap of Trump Tower.
He’s been making frequent appearances on Capitol Hill in recent weeks, but to brief lawmakers in closed-door, classified settings which normally chatty lawmakers have refused to divulge.
Democrats are sure to press him on any ongoing investigations and Trump’s wiretap claims when the hearing starts at 10 a.m.
The Senate will also take up two nominations during their first votes of the week on Tuesday: Charles Breyer and Danny Reeves to be members of the United States Sentencing Commission. The two nominees cleared the Judiciary Committee earlier this month by a voice vote.